If Kittitas County gets very little snowpack this winter, the area could experience one of the worst droughts in recent years.

Professor Carey Gazis of geochemistry and hydrogeology, Associate Professor Mike Pease of geography and Kittitas County Commissioner Paul Jewell agree that this year could end up as one of the worst droughts on record.

“Anything less than 90 to 100 percent snowpack is going to cause a drought,” Jewell said.

Last winter, light snowpack contributed to a significant drought in the Ellensburg area. This year is looking like it might be the same or worse.

“[Last year’s drought] was pretty bad. If we don’t get a good snow pack, it will be worse,” Gazis said.

Gazis said that it was bad to begin with before snow, then without snow it worsened. When summer and fall came to an end, the reservoirs were all very dry.

Pease added that there was an unusually low amount of snow in the valley.

The Cascades’ snow was very low by April and had an early melt. There was a high pressure system that stayed over the Pacific Northwest and air couldn’t come in and create moisture, which is why it was so dry.

Jewell, Gazis and Pease all mentioned that the county counts on the snowpack in the summer to refill the five Yakima River reservoirs, meaning the snowpack is considered the sixth reservoir.

According to Jewell, without snowpack the five reservoirs don’t hold enough water. Without the snowmelt in the summer, the drought will most likely follow.

If we don’t get a good enough of snowpack this year, Peas said, it will impact water availability for the county and the greater Yakima River Basin.

Gazis said that if there’s not enough snow in 2016, people might expect really slow flow in the streams and issues for local farmers.

“It may mean the prices of things like apples goes up,” Gazis said.

Pease said that this is because of poor resulting conditions.

“If there is little to no snow, that will impact soil moisture,” Pease said.

That would mean that the county would have to irrigate earlier, which will reduce total availability of water next summer.

Gazis said the most severe impact to water supply will be on irrigation.

When a toilet is flushed, most goes back, however, when a person waters the grass and plants, it all goes into the ground.

In California, they have strict rules and laws on water conservation, but Gazi said people around here don’t have to talk about that yet.

Gazis also added that Ellensburg is ahead of the county because they’re the first ones to require people to replace water they pull out of wells.

Until recently, there weren’t a lot of rules about personal wells. The wells drew water from groundwater, the same body of water that supports the river. People thought there was an “infinite supply.”

Gazis said that they have to buy a senior water right to replace the water they take out. She said this means Ellensburg is progressive towards water management.

Gazis said that she doesn’t know if two times in a row is enough to start water rationing, but three times in five, or four in 10 might be. In 2014, the county experienced one of its worst droughts ever recorded.

According to Jewel, water rationing has already occurred in some areas. He said that junior irrigators have already started rationing their supply.

The conditions this year are warmer and drier than normal. If this year pans out to be very dry, Pease said water rationing could be likely.

The carry over storage is significantly reduced because last year didn’t get a snowpack and the county had such a dry summer, said Jewell. It’s the lowest levels in the past decade.

However, Jewell stated that how bad the drought will be is really hard to say.

He said it depends on precipitation levels, timing of precipitation and if it comes down as rain or as snow.

“We can get a lot of snow, but at the wrong time,” Jewell said.

He said that no snow at all could make it very severe, because there is already low carryover storage from last winter.

Pease added that Ellensburg could get by in the valley area, assuming there is a strong snowpack in the mountains.

Gazis said the agricultural industry will suffer the most. Farming is pretty big in these areas, so without snow it could be pretty harmful on crops.

“I think that [farmers] probably will only get one cutting of hay [if there is very little snow],” Gazis said.

Pease said that farmers will only be able to focus on their first or second cutting of hay and that, if there is a prolonged drought, they’ll have to take parcels of land and not grow them for the time.

A lot of farmers have junior water rights– in Kittitas County that guarantees a certain amount of water, but not as high as senior water rights.

Jewell said that this year, junior water users got 47 percent and, without snow, it’ll go down to between 20 and 30 percent next year.

Jewell said the county has been watching climate models and their predictions. He said they’ve shown reduced snowpack and normal precipitation levels, but more as rain than as snow.

This little-to-no snow might be the norm, but they weren’t expecting it for another 20 years or so, said Jewell. He thinks it will become the norm, but that they’re trying to prepare for it.

Jewell said that the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan has been developed over a three year period.

People are lobbying in Olympia and Washington D.C. Projects include increasing water storage and enhancing ecosystem and habitat components.

If this becomes the norm, Jewell said they have a plan in place to deal with it.